How Prediction Markets Work — and Why They're More Accurate Than Polls
Polls ask what people think. Prediction markets ask people to put money on it.
Polls are everywhere. But time and again, prediction markets outperform them. Here's why.
The skin-in-the-game difference
When a pollster calls you and asks who you think will win the election, there's no cost to being wrong. You might say whatever sounds socially acceptable, or whatever you vaguely feel in the moment.
Prediction markets are different. When you buy shares in an outcome, you're committing real money to your belief. That changes how carefully people think before answering.
Aggregating information
A poll samples a small group. A prediction market aggregates information from thousands of participants, each with different knowledge, different data sources, and different reasoning.
The price that emerges represents the collective judgment of all those participants — each one weighted by how much they're willing to bet.
The track record
Research consistently shows that prediction markets outperform expert forecasters, polls, and media consensus on a wide range of topics. The Iowa Electronic Markets has been beating polls on US election outcomes since 1988.
What this means on Eeny Meeny Miny Moe
The prices you see on Eeny Meeny Miny Moe represent real collective intelligence. A market trading at 72¢ for Yes isn't just a number — it's the distilled judgment of everyone who has traded that market.
That's why we built the crowd signal into Slate. Seeing where the crowd is leaning gives you a meaningful data point. Agreeing or disagreeing with it is a decision worth making carefully.